195'
Arouca 1-0 Nacional: result and stats, Primeira Liga
Matchday 10
FT
AroucaLine ups
7.18corners2yellow cards0red cards
Line ups6.52corners2yellow cards0red cards
Luis Miguel Branco Godinho, see his record. 
Referee
RefereeGodinho
7.1Arruabarrena
7.4Lebedenko
7.6Fontán
7.6Sánchez
8.0Esgaio
6.7Flores
6.8Ee
7.4Djouahra
6.8Fukui
6.9Trezza
6.5Barbero
6.9Bellucci
6.1Kokolo
7.3Vitor
6.6Gonçalves
6.4Jensen
6.7Baeza
6.9OGDias
6.2Min-Kyu
6.4Labidi
6.1Gavriel
6.1Kader
Assistant
Nuno Diogo
Assistant
Luís Sousa
AssistantNuno Diogo
Nuno DiogoSubstitutions
- 59'T. Fukui86.8Pablo Gozálbez
106.3 - 71'
- 75'A. Trezza196.9B. Mansilla
246.7 - 75'Mateo Flores216.7Lee Hyun-Ju
146.9
Unused
AssistantLuís Sousa
Luís SousaSubstitutions
- 70'S. Gavriel116.1Matchoi Djaló
206.3 - 70'
- 71'N. Kader296.1Pablo Ruan
996.6 - 81'Miguel Baeza86.7Daniel Júnior
106.7 - 81'Song Min-Kyu126.2A. Obando
96.3
Unused
Player of the match
Tiago Alexandre de Sousa Esgaio
Defender · Arouca
8.0
This match
Attacking
Goals0
Assists0
Shots1
Shots on target0
Shot accuracy0%
Dribbles won0
Build-up
Passes40
Key passes1
Pass accuracy70%
Defending
Tackles2
Blocks0
Interceptions0
Duels won2 · 40%
Fouls won/made0 / 0
This match · octagon = season skill index
Highest-rated players
Goalkeepers
Every shot on target · tap oneArruabarrena
Arouca
1
Saves
0
Conceded
100%
Save %
+0.24
Prevented
Best save: Baeza 33' · 0.24 xGOT
Top left · 2.2 m high · 18 m out · 26° angle
Bellucci
Nacional
4
Saves
1
Conceded
80%
Save %
+0.24
Prevented
Best save: Nandín 80' · 0.62 xGOT
Top right · 1.9 m high · 12 m out · 43° angle
| Player | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. de ArruabarrenaG | 1 | 0,24 | +0,24 | 15/21 | 3/9 |
| Renato BellucciG | 4 | 1,24 | +0,24 | 34/40 | 6/12 |
xG race
17 shotsChance quality as it built up. A steep step is a big chance.
Arouca0,70 xG · 1 scoredNacional0,32 xG · 0 scoredHow those chances were made
Arouca24
Nacional10
Shot map
12 v 5Arouca shoot right, Nacional left. Bigger dot = better chance.
AROAroucaNACNacionalgoalsavedoff target
Goal mouth
10 on target · 1 scoredWhere each shot on target crossed the line. Placement beats power.
AroucaNacionalgoalsavedoff target
Shot duel
Barbero's 59' chance was the biggest of the match: 0,19 xG, missed.
Every shot on its minute, Arouca above and Nacional below. The longer the bar, the bigger the chance. Faces on goals and on chances of 0,3 xG or more.
Arouca12 shots · 0,70 xGNacional5 shots · 0,32 xGBarbero
Arouca
59'0,19 xGMissed
xG analytics
TeamxGShotsSOTPoss
Arouca83% open play17% set piece
Nacional34% open play66% set piece
Expected goals weighs every shot by the historic conversion rate of similar chances. Higher xG means better scoring opportunities, regardless of whether they went in.
Momentum
20 swingsWhich side was on top, minute by minute. A taller bar is heavier pressure.
Arouca65% pressureNacional35% pressureMatch replay
91'1-0100%Draw 0%0%
0.70xG0.32
12Shots5
7On target3
Momentum
90' Saved Hyun-Ju Lee 0.02 xG · From corner · Left footAverage positions
Each starter's average position on the ball, with the number of those actions inside the chip. Both sides attack left to right. Tap a player to see where they actually were.
AroucaDefensive line 33%NacionalDefensive line 27%An average, not a movement map: it says where a player's actions balanced out, not where they ran.
Passing network
Each player at his average position, sized by passes made. Lines join team-mates with 5 or more passes between them (fewer when a side made its first change early), thicker for more. Counted until each side's first substitution. Both sides attack left to right. Tap a player to isolate his links.
AroucaUntil 59'Most-connected pair: Fontán and Sánchez, 47 passes between them.
NacionalUntil 70'Most-connected pair: Vítor and Gonçalves, 32 passes between them.
Tactical battle
60control40Matheus Dias
3 touches in box
In possession
58,4%Field tilt41,6%
4Passes into box4
21Progressive passes16
11Carries into final third3
8Chances created2
Field tilt is each side's share of play in the final third.
Out of possession
11,75Press intensity (PPDA)31,53
6High turnovers2
6Regains within 5s4
23,5sBall recovery time40,8s
16Interceptions9
↓ Lower is better, so the longer bar always wins. PPDA is opponent passes allowed per defensive action.
Carrying
144Carries83
1475mCarry distance1011m
8Progressive carries10
805mProgressive carry distance571m
1Carries into the box2
Distances are how far the ball was moved forward, not how far anybody ran.
Beating the press
9Take-ons won7
16Take-ons attempted11
391mProgressive pass distance350m
2Through balls0
6Switches of play4
A take-on is a player going past an opponent with the ball at his feet.
Threat created
0,40Expected threat (xT)0,26
1,01Action value (VAEP)0,09
24Shot-creating actions10
2Goal-creating actions0
4Box entries6
xT values where a possession reached; VAEP values every action by how much it shifted the chance of a goal.
Tempo
5,8Passes per attack3,6
18,2sAttack duration14,0s
1,43 m/sAttack directness2,28 m/s
5Build-up attacks1
3Direct attacks6
An attack is direct when it moves upfield quickly rather than through many passes.
The moment that decided it
The goal that swung the win probability the most.
Matheus dos Santos DiasOwn goal for Arouca64'- Score
- 0–0→1–0
- Arouca win chance
- 17%→88%
Live statsPossession & Passing
62%Possession38%
553Total passes338
88%Pass accuracy80%
8Corners2
Attack
13Shots5
4On target1
7Off target2
2Blocked shots2
Box & Quality
7Shots in box4
6Shots out box1
0.7xG0.3
Defense & Discipline
1Goalkeeper saves4
0Offsides1
6Fouls10
2Yellow cards2
Half by half
The same match, split at the break. Which half did each side actually win?
First half
0,10xG0,15
2Shots3
0On target1
1Touches in box8
66%Possession34%
2Corners2
Second half
0,60xG0,17
10Shots2
5On target0
8Touches in box8
56%Possession44%
6Corners0
More match stats
Attack
10Touches in box17
62Final third entries44
1,24xG on target0,24
35Dangerous attacks21
Passing
3/20 (15%)Crosses2/17 (12%)
27/61 (44%)Long balls22/49 (45%)
19Throw-ins18
10Free kicks6
5Goal kicks9
Duels
48Total52
27/52 (52%)Ground27/55 (49%)
11/27 (41%)Aerial17/28 (61%)
9/13 (69%)Dribbles7/11 (64%)
9Dispossessed6
Defending
40Recoveries37
7Interceptions4
9Tackles14
67%Tackles won36%
25Clearances34
0Big saves1
3Fouled in final third1
7,74Average rating7,05
Match summary
Arouca beat Nacional 1-0 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca in Primeira Liga. It was goalless at half-time. The only goal was an own goal by Matheus dos Santos Dias in the 64th minute. In their last 15 meetings, Arouca have won 8, Nacional 2, with 5 drawn. Full match stats, lineups and player ratings are all on this page.
AI prediction
Confidence 48%ARO48%
X36%
NAC16%
→ Double chance: Arouca or draw
Why this prediction
The factors the model weighed, each split between the two sides.
Share per factor73%Form27%
56%Attack44%
75%Defence25%
86%Goal model (Poisson)14%
80%Head-to-head20%
73%Goals27%
74%Overall26%
Last 5 matches
Scored 5, conceded 4
Last 5 matches
Scored 4, conceded 12
Odds
Indicative · not tied to specific bookmakersSource1X2
Market average1.593.995.39
Who will win?
Cast your vote!
Goal profile
This seasonHow often each side reaches a scoreline, across 11 matches each.
Share of their matchesThey score
73%1+ goal64%
27%2+ goals36%
They concede
45%1+ goal73%
27%2+ goals55%
Heaviest results
best 4-0 (H)·worst 0-2 (A)
best 2-0 (H)·worst 0-4 (H)
Where these sides shoot from
2025/26 seasonEach attack set against the defence it meets, zone by zone. Season shares rather than a forecast; a figure beside a share is how far it sits from the league average, shown only where the gap is worth noticing.
AroucashootallowNacional4.9%Six-yard box5.5%
55.0%-1.8Penalty area+3.159.7%
30.2%+3.3Edge of the box26.5%
9.8%Long range-2.38.3%
367 shots taken · 494 faced
NacionalshootallowArouca4.4%Six-yard box6.9%
54.7%-2.1Penalty area+4.461.0%
28.4%+1.5Edge of the box-2.724.4%
12.6%+2.0Long range-2.87.8%
430 shots taken · 451 faced
Shot locations, not player movement: where the ball was struck from, not where anybody ran. Shares are of each club's own shots, so a side that shoots often is comparable with one that does not.
Venue spotlight
Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Arouca, Portugal
7,000
Capacity
Head-to-headLast 15 meetings
8AroucaWins8 wins
5Draws
Draws5
2Nacional
Wins2 wins
- 1 Nov 2026Arouca1 - 0NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 21 Feb 2026Arouca3 - 0NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 20 Sept 2025Nacional1 - 2AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 1 Feb 2025Nacional1 - 2AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 25 Aug 2024Arouca1 - 0NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 6 May 2018Arouca0 - 1NacionalSegunda Liga
Show 9 earlier meetingsHide earlier meetings
- 22 Dec 2017Nacional2 - 2AroucaSegunda Liga
- 28 Jan 2017Nacional1 - 1AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 21 Aug 2016Arouca2 - 0NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 1 May 2016Arouca3 - 0NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 2 Jan 2016Nacional2 - 2AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 8 Feb 2015Arouca3 - 3NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 31 Aug 2014Nacional2 - 0AroucaPrimeira Liga
- 16 Feb 2014Arouca1 - 1NacionalPrimeira Liga
- 15 Sept 2013Nacional0 - 1AroucaPrimeira Liga
