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Nacional 2-3 Estrela: result and stats, Primeira Liga

Matchday 4
FT
  • Wesley Gasolina3'
  • Pablo Ruan66'
  • 45' (pen)I. Stoica
  • 62'A. Marcus
  • 83'L. Antonetti
Estádio da MadeiraCarlos MacedoSun, 30 Aug 202616:30
Luís Sousa portrait
Assistant
Luís Sousa
Player of the match
Abraham Marcus headshot
Abraham Marcus
Midfielder · Estrela
8.2
This match
Shooting7.0Finishing6.7Creativity7.1Passing6.8Involvement3.9Defending4.2Physical5.6Dribbling10.0
Attacking
Goals1
Assists0
Shots2
Shots on target2
Shot accuracy100%
Dribbles won3
Build-up
Passes21
Key passes2
Pass accuracy76%
Defending
Tackles1
Duels won4 · 40%
Fouls won/made0 / 1
This match · octagon = season skill index

Highest-rated players

Gasolina7.9Cardozo7.6Liziero7.3Stoica7.3Doué7.3Marcus8.2
Player
Léo LinckLéo LinckG321,71-0,2918/283/12
Renato MarinRenato MarinG131,60-1,4030/386/14
Nacional crestLive statsEstrela crest

Possession & Passing

51%Possession49%
412Total passes388
82%Pass accuracy82%
4Corners3

Attack

10Shots15
5On target4
2Off target9
3Blocked shots2

Box & Quality

4Shots in box10
6Shots out box5
0.8xG2.1

Defense & Discipline

1Goalkeeper saves3
1Offsides1
12Fouls9
2Yellow cards1

Half by half

The same match, split at the break. Which half did each side actually win?

Nacional crest

First half

Estrela crest
0,21xG1,02
5Shots7
2On target2
0Big chances1
6Touches in box11
44%Possession56%
3Corners1
Nacional crest

Second half

Estrela crest
0,63xG1,08
5Shots7
3On target2
1Big chances3
6Touches in box16
58%Possession42%
1Corners2

xG analytics

TeamxGShotsSOTPoss
Nacional crestNacional
0.8310851%
76% open play24% set piece
Estrela crestEstrela
2.1014649%
53% open play10% set piece37% penalty

Expected goals weighs every shot by the historic conversion rate of similar chances. Higher xG means better scoring opportunities, regardless of whether they went in.

xG race

24 shots

Chance quality as it built up. A steep step is a big chance.

0,00,61,21,82,40'15'30'45'60'75'90'Ianis Stoica 45'Abraham Marcus 62'Leandro Antonetti 83'Wesley 3'Pablo Ruan 66'Estrela2,10 xGNacional0,83 xGCumulative expected goals per team over the match.
Nacional crestNacional0,83 xG · 2 scoredEstrela crestEstrela2,10 xG · 3 scored

How those chances were made

Nacional20
Open play 14Set piece 4Rebound 2
Estrela23
Open play 19Set piece 1Dribble 1Foul won 1Rebound 1

Momentum

24 swings

Which side was on top, minute by minute. A taller bar is heavier pressure.

Wesley 3'Ianis Stoica 45'Abraham Marcus 62'Pablo Ruan 66'Leandro Antonetti 83'0'15'30'45'60'75'90'NacionalEstrela
Nacional crestNacional30% pressureEstrela crestEstrela70% pressure

Match replay

91'
2-3
0%Draw 0%100%
0.83xG2.10
10Shots14
8On target6
Momentum
Joan Jordán portrait90' Off target Joan Jordán 0.26 xG

Shot map

10 v 14

Nacional shoot right, Estrela left. Bigger dot = better chance.

NACESTgoalsavedoff target

Goal mouth

14 on target · 5 scored

Where each shot on target crossed the line. Placement beats power.

Leandro Antonetti, 23', off targetLovro Zvonarek, 24', off targetStefan Lekovic, 25', off targetFilipe Soares, 32', off targetMiguel Baeza, 37', off targetLeandro Antonetti, 51', off targetLuan Patrick, 51', off targetRafa Soares, 54', off targetIanis Stoica, 59', off targetJoan Jordán, 90', off target
NacionalEstrelagoalsavedoff target

Average positions

Each starter's average position on the ball, with the number of those actions inside the chip. Both sides attack left to right. Tap a player to see where they actually were.

NacionalDefensive line 35%
25Soares35Cardozo56Marin48Gasolina71Liziero73Santos42Júnior94Dias40Baeza38Kokolo87Vitor
EstrelaDefensive line 35%
34Stoica50Robinho43Zvonarek44Antonetti86Leković47Linck78Soares78Patrick70Doué73Scholze53Marcus

An average, not a movement map: it says where a player's actions balanced out, not where they ran.

Passing network

Each player at his average position, sized by passes made. Lines join team-mates with 5 or more passes between them (fewer when a side made its first change early), thicker for more. Counted until each side's first substitution. Both sides attack left to right. Tap a player to isolate his links.

NacionalUntil 40'
2863822103485221199

Most-connected pair: Dias and Vítor, 9 passes between them.

EstrelaUntil 67'
53039552110991482437

Most-connected pairs: Leković and Soares; Leković and Patrick. 17 passes each.

Tactical battle

47control53
44%Field tiltField tilt 56%6Box entriesBox entries 155Passes into boxPasses into box 11
Leandro Antonetti
Leandro Antonetti
6 touches in box
Press11.3 · 10.2Territory44% · 56%Direct2.22 · 2.87Progress32 · 41Dribble4 · 5Creation20 · 23Threat0.85 · 0.86Recover6 · 9
Nacional crest

In possession

Estrela crest
44,1%Field tilt55,9%
5Passes into box11
23Progressive passes22
7Carries into final third14
7Chances created10

Field tilt is each side's share of play in the final third.

Nacional crest

Out of possession

Estrela crest
11,32Press intensity (PPDA)10,15
7High turnovers13
6Regains within 5s9
20,9sBall recovery time21,4s
18Interceptions16

↓ Lower is better, so the longer bar always wins. PPDA is opponent passes allowed per defensive action.

Nacional crest

Carrying

Estrela crest
113Carries109
1292mCarry distance1322m
9Progressive carries19
673mProgressive carry distance832m
1Carries into the box4

Distances are how far the ball was moved forward, not how far anybody ran.

Nacional crest

Beating the press

Estrela crest
4Take-ons won5
17Take-ons attempted17
429mProgressive pass distance373m
0Through balls0
1Switches of play3

A take-on is a player going past an opponent with the ball at his feet.

Nacional crest

Threat created

Estrela crest
0,85Expected threat (xT)0,86
1,22Action value (VAEP)2,12
20Shot-creating actions23
4Goal-creating actions4
0,80Expected assisted goals1,10

xT values where a possession reached; VAEP values every action by how much it shifted the chance of a goal.

Nacional crest

Tempo

Estrela crest
4,0Passes per attack3,0
12,9sAttack duration10,7s
2,22 m/sAttack directness2,87 m/s
4Build-up attacks2
8Direct attacks12

An attack is direct when it moves upfield quickly rather than through many passes.

Nacional crest

More match stats

Estrela crest
Nacional crest

Attack

Estrela crest
12Touches in box27
52Final third entries42
1Big chances4
1,71xG on target1,60
0Big chances missed1
Nacional crest

Passing

Estrela crest
2/17 (12%)Crosses3/16 (19%)
24/56 (43%)Long balls20/54 (37%)
23Throw-ins19
9Free kicks11
13Goal kicks5
Nacional crest

Duels

Estrela crest
48Total52
26/61 (43%)Ground35/61 (57%)
14/23 (61%)Aerial9/23 (39%)
4/17 (24%)Dribbles5/17 (29%)
6Dispossessed3
Nacional crest

Defending

Estrela crest
40Recoveries56
12Interceptions7
15Tackles19
53%Tackles won74%
21Clearances26
1Big chances scored3
0Big saves1
1Errors led to goal0
1Errors led to shot0
6,39Average rating7,35

Goal profile

This season

How often each side reaches a scoreline, across 8 matches each.

Nacional crestShare of their matchesEstrela crest

They score

63%1+ goal75%
50%2+ goals75%

They concede

88%1+ goal100%
75%2+ goals75%
50%3+ goals13%

Heaviest results

Nacional crestbest 2-0 (H)·worst 0-4 (H)

Estrela crestbest 2-1 (H)·worst 0-2 (H)

Where these sides shoot from

2025/26 season

Each attack set against the defence it meets, zone by zone. Season shares rather than a forecast; a figure beside a share is how far it sits from the league average, shown only where the gap is worth noticing.

NacionalshootallowEstrela
4.4%Six-yard box5.7%
54.7%-2.1Penalty area+3.560.1%
28.4%+1.5Edge of the box-1.625.5%
12.6%+2.0Long range-1.98.7%

430 shots taken · 459 faced

EstrelashootallowNacional
6.0%Six-yard box5.5%
49.6%-7.2Penalty area+3.159.7%
29.3%+2.4Edge of the box26.5%
15.2%+4.6Long range-2.38.3%

369 shots taken · 494 faced

Shot locations, not player movement: where the ball was struck from, not where anybody ran. Shares are of each club's own shots, so a side that shoots often is comparable with one that does not.

Match summary

Estrela beat Nacional 3-2 at Estádio da Madeira in Primeira Liga. It was 1-1 at half-time, and Estrela came from behind to win. Scorers: Wesley Gasolina (3'), Pablo Ruan (66') for Nacional; I. Stoica (45' pen), A. Marcus (62'), L. Antonetti (83') for Estrela. In their last 10 meetings, Nacional have won 3, Estrela 5, with 2 drawn. Full match stats, lineups and player ratings are all on this page.

AI prediction
Confidence 35%
NAC35%
X35%
EST30%

→ Double chance: Nacional or draw

Why this prediction

The factors the model weighed, each split between the two sides.

Nacional crestShare per factorEstrela crest
67%Form33%
50%Attack50%
57%Defence43%
100%Goal model (Poisson)0%
29%Head-to-head71%
33%Goals67%
47%Overall53%
Last 3 matches
Scored 4, conceded 3
Last 2 matches
Scored 4, conceded 4

Who will win?

Cast your vote!

Nacional crestCompare teamsEstrela crest
Team formsLatestPts
16
Nacional crestNacional
LLLLL
4
10
Estrela crestEstrela
LLDWD
10
Prematch standings

Head-to-headLast 10 meetings

Nacional crest3
Wins
2
Draws
5Estrela crest
Wins
Show 4 earlier meetings
  • 21 May 2023Estrela crest0 - 1Nacional crestSegunda Liga
  • 15 Jan 2023Nacional crest0 - 1Estrela crestSegunda Liga
  • 16 Apr 2022Estrela crest0 - 0Nacional crestSegunda Liga
  • 4 Dec 2021Nacional crest4 - 1Estrela crestSegunda Liga
Full head-to-head →

Venue spotlight

Estádio da Madeira
Funchal