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Newcastle vs Aston Villa: prediction and lineups, Premier League

Matchday 7
St James' ParkJarred Gillett10°C· overcast cloudsCapacity 52,758Sat, 17 Oct 202618:30
Newcastle crest4-2-3-1
Expected XI
4-2-3-1Aston Villa crest
Expected XI · auto-updates when the teams confirm ~30 min before kickoff
Graeme Jones portrait
Assistant
Graeme Jones
Pako Ayestaran portrait
Assistant
Pako Ayestaran

Home

  • A. Elanga portraitNewcastle crest
    A. Elanga
    Knee Injury
    Out
  • E. Jaouen portraitNewcastle crest
    E. Jaouen
    Muscle Injury
    Out
  • V. Livramento portraitNewcastle crest
    V. Livramento
    Injury
    Out
  • J. Ramsey portraitNewcastle crest
    J. Ramsey
    Thigh Injury
    Out

Away

  • I. Maatsen portraitAston Villa crest
    I. Maatsen
    Ankle Injury
    Out
  • A. Onana portraitAston Villa crest
    A. Onana
    Knee Injury
    Out
  • M. Ruggeri portraitAston Villa crest
    M. Ruggeri
    Injury
    Out
  • M. Cisse portraitAston Villa crest
    M. Cisse
    Injury
    Questionable
  • G. Hemmings portraitAston Villa crest
    G. Hemmings
    Knee Injury
    Questionable

Goal profile

This season

How often each side reaches a scoreline, across 6 matches each.

Newcastle crestShare of their matchesAston Villa crest

They score

100%1+ goal50%
67%2+ goals33%

They concede

83%1+ goal83%
67%2+ goals67%
33%3+ goals17%
33%4+ goals17%

Heaviest results

Newcastle crestbest 2-0 (A)·worst 1-4 (A)

Aston Villa crestbest 3-2 (A)·worst 0-4 (A)

Where these sides shoot from

2025/26 season

Each attack set against the defence it meets, zone by zone. Season shares rather than a forecast; a figure beside a share is how far it sits from the league average, shown only where the gap is worth noticing.

NewcastleshootallowAston Villa
9.5%Six-yard box8.1%
55.3%-5.1Penalty area59.6%
28.1%+3.4Edge of the box26.0%
7.1%Long range6.3%

494 shots taken · 493 faced

Aston VillashootallowNewcastle
10.7%+2.3Six-yard box-1.66.8%
54.1%-6.3Penalty area61.3%
25.0%Edge of the box25.3%
10.1%+3.6Long range6.6%

484 shots taken · 470 faced

Shot locations, not player movement: where the ball was struck from, not where anybody ran. Shares are of each club's own shots, so a side that shoots often is comparable with one that does not.

Match preview

Newcastle face Aston Villa in the Premier League at St James' Park. In their last 30 meetings, Newcastle have won 13, Aston Villa 7, with 10 drawn. BetsyScore's AI model makes Newcastle favourites at 45%, projecting a 1-0 scoreline. Follow live scores, confirmed lineups and full stats for Newcastle vs Aston Villa right here.

AI prediction
Confidence 45%
NEW45%
X36%
AV19%

→ Double chance: Newcastle or draw

Why this prediction

The factors the model weighed, each split between the two sides.

Newcastle crestShare per factorAston Villa crest
67%Form33%
69%Attack31%
50%Defence50%
67%Goal model (Poisson)33%
50%Head-to-head50%
50%Goals50%
59%Overall41%
Last 5 matches
Scored 9, conceded 9
Last 5 matches
Scored 4, conceded 9

Odds

Indicative · not tied to specific bookmakers
Source1X2
Market average2.233.673.02

Who will win?

Cast your vote!

Newcastle crestCompare teamsAston Villa crest
Team formsLatestPts
11
Newcastle crestNewcastle
LWLDW
8
16
Aston Villa crestAston Villa
DWLDL
5
Prematch standings

Head-to-headLast 30 meetings

Newcastle crest13
Wins
10
Draws
7Aston Villa crest
Wins
Show 24 earlier meetings
  • 12 Aug 2023Newcastle crest5 - 1Aston Villa crestPremier League
  • 23 Jul 2023Newcastle crest3 - 3Aston Villa crestPremier League - Summer Series
  • 15 Apr 2023Aston Villa crest3 - 0Newcastle crestPremier League
  • 29 Oct 2022Newcastle crest4 - 0Aston Villa crestPremier League
  • 13 Feb 2022Newcastle crest1 - 0Aston Villa crestPremier League
  • 21 Aug 2021Aston Villa crest2 - 0Newcastle crestPremier League
  • 12 Mar 2021Newcastle crest1 - 1Aston Villa crestPremier League
  • 23 Jan 2021Aston Villa crest2 - 0Newcastle crestPremier League
  • 24 Jun 2020Newcastle crest1 - 1Aston Villa crestPremier League
  • 25 Nov 2019Aston Villa crest2 - 0Newcastle crestPremier League
  • 20 Feb 2017Newcastle crest2 - 0Aston Villa crestChampionship
  • 24 Sept 2016Aston Villa crest1 - 1Newcastle crestChampionship
  • 7 May 2016Aston Villa crest0 - 0Newcastle crestPremier League
  • 19 Dec 2015Newcastle crest1 - 1Aston Villa crestPremier League
  • 28 Feb 2015Newcastle crest1 - 0Aston Villa crestPremier League
  • 23 Aug 2014Aston Villa crest0 - 0Newcastle crestPremier League
  • 23 Feb 2014Newcastle crest1 - 0Aston Villa crestPremier League
  • 14 Sept 2013Aston Villa crest1 - 2Newcastle crestPremier League
  • 29 Jan 2013Aston Villa crest1 - 2Newcastle crestPremier League
  • 2 Sept 2012Newcastle crest1 - 1Aston Villa crestPremier League
  • 5 Feb 2012Newcastle crest2 - 1Aston Villa crestPremier League
  • 17 Sept 2011Aston Villa crest1 - 1Newcastle crestPremier League
  • 10 Apr 2011Aston Villa crest1 - 0Newcastle crestPremier League
  • 22 Aug 2010Newcastle crest6 - 0Aston Villa crestPremier League
Full head-to-head →

Venue spotlight

St James' Park
Newcastle upon Tyne, England
52,758
Capacity